It thought it might be, but it's hard to say off-hand. My theory was that you used something other than Baseline profile, which is generally not supported on mobiles. Since you used Baseline, it should work.
Can you play other video files in Chrome/Android?
You can try filing a bug: http://code.google.com/p/chromium/issues/list
I've noticed that the top videos play ok........but when you scroll the page and try another video....it doesn't work. It's something to do with scrolling.
Chrome doesn't autostart your videos so you have to press play......but when you scroll down the page.....it's as if the press command on the play button is still up at the top of the page where the other videos play ok.
Is there a way when you press the image link to open your video.......that the parent page jumps up to the top of the page.....so the video could play?
The link I have at the moment is like:
<a rel="shadowbox;height=364;width=648;controls=autoplay;" href="assets/video/video_30.html" title="Test Video number 30"><img src="assets/img/video_thumbnail_30.jpg" alt="" border="0" name=""></a>
Thanks for your help